Analytical Overview of Major Currency Pairs for 06.30.2022 :: InvestMacro


by just forex

EUR/USD . currency pair

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.0518
  • Previous Close: 1.0441
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.73%

The euro fell sharply on Wednesday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the era of hyper-low inflation that preceded the pandemic is unlikely to return. Speaking at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, along with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Lagarde added that central banks need to adjust to higher price growth expectations. As before, analysts expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 0.25% in July. A number of inflation data will be released this week in European countries. The initial level of German consumer prices was 7.6% on an annual basis, down from 7.9% in May. In Spain, the inflation rate jumped from 8.7% to 10.2% annually.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.0425, 1.0379
  • Resistance Levels: 1.0468, 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has turned negative, and there is the initiative of new sellers. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.0468 resistance level, but only after additional confirmation. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.0425, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level 1.0611 and is fixed above, it is likely that the uptrend will resume.

News Briefing for 06.30.2022:

  • – German retail sales in the eurozone (month / month) at 09:00 (GMT + 3);
  • – French CPI for the Eurozone (monthly) at 09:45 (GMT +3);
  • – German unemployment rate in the eurozone (month / month) at 10:55 (GMT + 3);
  • – unemployment rate in the euro area (month / month) at 12:00 (GMT + 3);
  • – US PCE price index (m / m) at 15:30 (GMT + 3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/s) at 15:30 (GMT +3).

Currency pair GBP / USD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.2182
  • Previous Close: 1.2121
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.50%

At the Monetary Policy Forum, the Governor of the Bank of England said in his speech that UK inflation will continue to rise. When asked about a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting, the answer was: “If we see a greater continuation of inflation, we will have to act more aggressively. The situation leaves options on the table.”

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.2093, 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2171, 1.2238, 1.2324, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From a technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has turned negative, and there is the initiative of new sellers. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.2171 resistance level, but only after additional confirmation. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2093, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level 1.2422 and is fixed above, the uptrend is likely to resume.

British Pounds / US Dollars

News Briefing for 06.30.2022:

  • – UK GDP (Quarterly) at 09:00 (GMT +3).

Currency pair USD/JPY

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous Conquest: 136.04
  • Previous Close: 136.59
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.40%

The basic picture of the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The divergent policies of central banks have already caused the yen to fall to a 24-year high against the dollar. Former BoJ CEO Yamaoka said yesterday that the Bank of Japan may have to adjust the yield ceiling if inflation continues to exceed expectations. But such an action would weaken the yen even more.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 136.21, 135.45, 134.84, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
  • Resistance levels: 136.66

The medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. Buyer pressure is still there, and the price is steadily growing. The MACD indicator is in the positive territory, but there is divergence on the higher time frames. Under such market conditions, buying from the support level of 136.21 can be considered, but with confirmation. The resistance level 136.66 is good for short positions, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price holds below 133.35, the downtrend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Japanese yen

News Briefing for 06.30.2022:

  • – Japanese Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT +3).

Currency pair USD/CAD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.2860
  • Previous Close: 1.2895
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.27%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends on the dynamics of the US dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index rose yesterday, while oil prices fell more than 2% in anticipation of today’s OPEC + meeting. As a result, the USD/CAD rate started to form a corridor with a slight advantage over the USD. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are on track to raise interest rates, while the oil market remains in deficit with increased demand during the summer. These facts indicate that medium-term trends should not be expected on the USD/CAD currency pair, as market conditions favor the strengthening of both the US and Canadian dollars.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.2831, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2899, 1.2956, 1.3068

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. But now, the price is starting to form a corridor, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. In these market conditions, it is better to look for long positions in the lower time frames from the 1.2831 support level, but with confirmation. For short positions, it is better to look at the resistance level 1.2899, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the support level 1.2831 and consolidates below the support level, the downtrend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Canadian dollar

News Briefing for 06.30.2022:

  • – OPEC + meeting (month / month) at 12:00 (GMT + 3);
  • – Canadian GDP (Quarterly) at 15:30 (GMT +3).

by just forex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be construed as investment advice and/or a continuing offer and/or solicitation to carry out financial transactions and/or guarantee and/or anticipation of future events.



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