Analytical overview of the major currency pairs in 2022.06.23 :: InvestMacro


by just forex

EUR/USD . currency pair

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous Conquest: 1.0531
  • Previous Close: 1.0568
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.35%

The dollar fell on Wednesday as US Treasury yields fell amid fears that the US economy could slide into recession. It happened after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said raising interest rates could lead to an economic slowdown. Investors fear that large interest rate increases by major central banks to curb inflation could lead to a global slowdown or recession. Higher interest rates have boosted the dollar, but the euro has gained recently thanks to plans by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation as well.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.0531, 1.0408, 1.0379
  • Resistance Levels: 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. But the buyers’ pressure is building, the MACD indicator has turned positive, and the price is close to changing direction. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.0611 resistance level, but only after additional confirmation. A price move above 1.0611 will change the priority. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.0531, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level 1.0611 and is fixed above, it is likely that the uptrend will resume.

News Briefing for 2022.06.23:

  • – French Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (MoM) at 10:15 (GMT +3);
  • – PMI for French services in the eurozone (monthly) at 10:15 (GMT +3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone (MoM) at 10:30 (GMT +3);
  • – German PMI for services in the Eurozone (monthly) at 10:30 (GMT +3);
  • – Economic Bulletin of the European Central Bank in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT +3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m / m) at 11:00 (GMT +3);
  • – PMI for eurozone services (m / m) at 11:00 (GMT +3);
  • – EU leaders summit in the eurozone at 13:00 (GMT +3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/s) at 15:30 (GMT +3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m / m) at 16:45 (GMT +3);
  • – US Services PMI (m / m) at 16:45 (GMT +3);
  • – US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify at 17:00 (GMT +3).

Currency pair GBP / USD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.2263
  • Previous Close: 1.2262
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.01%

UK CPI was 9.1% y/y (expected 9.1%, previous 9.0%). The monthly inflation rate increased by 0.7%. The last time there was this level of inflation was in 1982. It was residential services, particularly electricity, gas and other fuels, and transportation that contributed the most to the rise in inflation. In short, rising food and energy prices continue to exacerbate the country’s cost-of-living crisis. The bank’s key interest rate is now at a 13-year high of 1.25%, and the Bank of England expects inflation to exceed 11% by October. Analysts believe the central bank will have to take tougher measures at its upcoming meetings.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.2222, 1.2093, 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From a technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to average values, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and a sideways trend is forming. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.2422, but only after additional confirmation. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2222, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level 1.2422 and is fixed above, the uptrend is likely to resume.

British Pounds / US Dollars

News Briefing for 2022.06.23:

  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (Monthly) at 11:30 (GMT +3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m / m) at 11:30 (GMT +3).

Currency pair USD/JPY

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 136.58
  • Previous Close: 136.22
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.26%

The Bank of Japan is forced to take increasingly tough measures to maintain its yield curve control strategy as other central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, continue to raise interest rates. Consequently, selling pressure on the yen increases as foreign exchange rates rise. But analysts are confident that it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the soft policy going forward. Japan imports most of its energy from abroad, so the country’s trade surplus has recently turned into a trade deficit with the rise in oil prices. Tourists are still unable to visit the island, which further reduces the demand for the yen. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will have to give in and raise that cap entirely or remove yield controls.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 135.12, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
  • Resistance levels: 135.77, 136.66

The medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The price has been corrected to the moving averages. Under such market conditions, long positions can be considered from the 135.12 support level, but with confirmation. The resistance level 135.77 is good for short positions, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price holds below 133.35, the downtrend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Japanese yen

News Briefing for 2022.06.23:

  • – Japanese Manufacturing PMI (MoM) at 03:30 (GMT +3);
  • – Japanese Services PMI (MoM) at 03:30 (GMT +3).

Currency pair USD/CAD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.2921
  • Previous Close: 1.2946
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.19%

Canada’s CPI rose last month by 1.4% (expected +1%, previous +0.6%). Thus, Canada’s inflation rate is 7.7% annually, a record high since 1983. Core inflation (which does not include food and fuel prices) rose from 5.8% to 6.3% year on year. Analysts believe that the sharp rise in inflation in Canada will boost investor expectations for a more aggressive rate hike by the Bank of Canada, which in turn will add confidence to the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada may raise 75 basis points as early as the next meeting.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3068

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, the price is correcting to its average values, and a sideways trend is forming. In these market conditions, it is better to look for long positions in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2920. For short positions, it is better to look at the resistance level 1.2980, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the support level 1.2815 and consolidates below the support level 1.2815, then the bearish trend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Canadian dollar

News Briefing for 2022.06.23:

  • – US crude oil reserves (w / s) at 18:30 (GMT +3).

by just forex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be construed as investment advice and/or a continuing offer and/or solicitation to carry out financial transactions and/or guarantee and/or anticipation of future events.



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