Analytical overview of the major currency pairs in 2022.07.08 :: InvestMacro


by just forex

EUR/USD . currency pair

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.0181
  • Previous Close: 1.0161
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.20%

The US dollar fell in the European session on Thursday but remained near a 20-year high yesterday as the Federal Reserve remained hawkish. There are many factors that contribute to the rise of the dollar, but the most important of them is the tightening of monetary policy by the US central bank. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, which was released on Wednesday, pointed to a further increase of 75 basis points in July. According to analysts, if Europe and the United States fall into recession in the third quarter while the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall below 1. The published minutes from the European Central Bank meeting in June indicate that The door is still standing. Open to raising the interest rate by more than 25 basis points at the upcoming July 21 meeting. But for now, the base scenario of the ECB raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July and another 50 basis points in September has the highest probability.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.0135
  • Resistance levels: 1.0221, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator is in the negative territory, but there is a strong divergence. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.0221 or 1.0284 resistance level, but only after additional confirmation. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.0135, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level 1.0415 and is fixed above, it is likely that the uptrend will resume.

News Briefing for 2022.07.08:

  • – ECB President Lagarde speaking at 14:55 (GMT +3);
  • – US non-farm payrolls (month / month) at 15:30 (GMT + 3);
  • – US unemployment rate (month / month) at 15:30 (GMT +3);
  • FOMC member Williams speaking at 18:00 (GMT +3).

Currency pair GBP / USD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 1.1921
  • Previous Close: 1.2023
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.86%

Boris Johnson announced that he will step down as British Prime Minister. But this did not affect the British pound, on the contrary, the British currency rose yesterday. Traders and investors were already anticipating the move after dozens of senior ministers resigned in recent days in protest of Johnson’s leadership. Mounting obstacles on the UK macroeconomic front and monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will remain the main catalysts for price movements on the GBP/USD currency pair.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.1985, 1.1929
  • Resistance levels: 1.2065, 1.2095, 1.2137

From a technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. There is no correlation between the Euro and the British Pound at the moment, as the Pound is showing more flexibility. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator is turning positive, and there is buying pressure. Under these market conditions, short positions can be considered from the 1.2065 resistance level, but only after additional confirmation. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.1985 or 1.1929, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2137 and is fixed above, it is likely that the uptrend will resume.

British Pounds / US Dollars

There is no news feed for today.

Currency pair USD/JPY

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous conquest: 135.92
  • Previous Close: 136.01.000
  • % changing. Over the past day: +0.15%

Shocking news came from Japan. During the speech of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, there was an attempt to attack the Prime Minister, which, according to preliminary information, resulted in Abe suffering a heart attack from his injuries. Shinzo Abe is now in the hospital, and his condition is unknown. Several other people were also injured. The suspect was arrested. The Japanese Yen’s reaction to this event was a slight growth.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 135.40, 134.64, 134.11, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
  • Resistance levels: 135.87, 136.48

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price continues to form a broad equilibrium. Under such market conditions, buying from the support level of 135.40 can be considered, but with confirmation. The resistance level 136.48 is good for short positions, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price holds below 133.35, the downtrend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Japanese yen

There is no news feed for today.

Currency pair USD/CAD

Technical indicators for the currency pair:

  • Previous Open: 1.3045
  • Previous Close: 1.2966
  • % changing. Over the past day: -0.61%

The outlook for the Canadian dollar has become less optimistic due to growing recession fears. Many analysts believe that the Canadian dollar has strengthened over the course of the year due to higher oil prices. Oil has fallen about $25 in recent weeks, falling below $100 a barrel, and the Canadian commodity-related stock market is down 15% from its March high. However, it should be noted that the Bank of Canada aggressively raised interest rates during this time to keep pace with the US Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada plans to raise its overnight interest rate by 75 basis points next week and another 50 basis points in September. For now, the risks are shifting to a drop in the Canadian dollar if there is a recession in the US before Canada and oil prices continue to fall.

Trading Recommendations

  • Support levels: 1.2959, 1.2934, 1.2894
  • Resistance levels: 1.3021, 1.3052

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price has corrected to the average values, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. In these market conditions, it is better to look for long positions on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2959 or 1.2934. For short positions, it is better to look at the resistance level 1.3021, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the support level 1.2894 and consolidates below the support level 1.2894, then the bearish trend is likely to resume.

US dollar / Canadian dollar

News Briefing for 2022.07.08:

  • – Canadian unemployment rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT +3).

by just forex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be construed as investment advice and/or a continuing offer and/or solicitation to carry out financial transactions and/or guarantee and/or anticipation of future events.


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