Energy bets are mostly higher led by WTI oil and natural gas :: InvestMacro


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Here are the latest graphs and statistics for Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated by Tuesday 28th June It presents a quick look at how the major traders (speculators for profit and business entities) are positioned in the futures markets.

Speculative bets in the energy market were mostly higher this week as four of the six energy markets we cover took a higher position this week while two had lower contracts.

Gains in the energy markets were led by WTI (10,190 contracts) and natural gas (1,450 contracts) as Bloomberg Commodities (703 contracts) and Gasoline (692 contracts) also showed a positive week. Meanwhile, the decline in speculators’ bets this week is led by Brent Crude Oil (-4,667 contracts) with Heating Oil (-2,056 contracts) also posting lower bets during the week.


Strengths (measuring 3 years of speculative trades, 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is very bullish and less than 20 percent is very bearish) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (79 percent) and Heating Oil (54 percent) Above the midpoint of the past three years while all other markets are below the 50 per cent level. Gasoline and WTI are in sharp bearish positions as they both come in at 3 percent currently.


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The Strengths Trends (or Action Index, which calculates 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil (16 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (9 percent) are also the only markets with uptrend scores currently. Brent crude (-13%) and West Texas Intermediate (-9%) are leading downward trends.


June 28 – 2022 OI OI Index net specification Specification Index Comment COM . indicator Smalls Net Smalls Index
West Texas Intermediate Crude 1,651,566 0 299,692 3 -327,938 99 28,246 55
He went 497.005 13 157,693 2 -182.007 98 24314 16
silver 135,775 3 10891 0 -18485 100 7594 0
copper 182352 14 -30696 20 31197 81 -501 22
Palladium 7765 6 -3,825 1 4441 100 -616 8
platinum 68232 36 -1306 2 -3381 100 4,687 27
natural gas 987740 0 -129,419 40 90840 60 38579 71
Brent 173920 19 -42677 40 41434 62 1,243 26
heating oil 269168 23 7,508 53 -25743 44 18,235 62
soybean 653337 11 137193 56 -106705 52 -30488 20
corn 1,338,054 0 328102 72 -274,110 33 -53992 12
coffee 194896 2 45200 78 -47147 26 1,947 9
sugar 734324 0 122709 62 -132877 43 10168 20
wheat 291,041 0 7,679 29 -1,871 57 -5808 80

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI crude oil futures COT chartLarge speculators on WTI crude oil futures that stood this week resulted in a net position of 299,692 contracts in the data released through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,190 contracts from the previous week which netted 289,502 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently in Bearish-Extreme position with a score of 3.4%. Commercials are bullish-extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 54.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 24.0 36.3 4.9
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 5.8 56.2 3.2
net position: 299,692 -327,938 28,246
Total purchases: 396,046 599957 80880
– Total pants: 96354 927895 52634
Long to short ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 3.4 98.6 54.8
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -8.7 12.6 -14.1

Brent crude futures contracts:

COT chart for Brent crude oil futuresMajor speculators on Brent crude futures this week resulted in a net position of -42,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,667 contracts from the previous week with a total net contract of -38,010 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently 39.6 percent bearish. Commercials are up 62.2% and small traders (not shown in chart) are down 26.0%.

Brent crude futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 14.8 53.8 3.6
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 39.3 30.0 2.9
net position: -42677 41434 1,243
Total purchases: 25712 93.538 6241
– Total pants: 68389 52104 4,998
Long to short ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 39.6 62.2 26.0
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -13.1 15.5 -20.3

Natural gas futures contracts:

COT chart for natural gas futuresThe large natural gas futures speculator who stood this week resulted in a net position of -129,419 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,450 contracts from the previous week which totaled -130,869 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently down 39.7 percent. Commercials are up 59.5 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 71.5 percent.

Natural gas futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 20.6 40.8 6.3
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 33.7 31.6 2.4
net position: -129,419 90840 38579
Total purchases: 203204 402705 62,574
– Total pants: 332,623 311865 23995
Long to short ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 39.7 59.5 71.5
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -4.3 8.4 -28.5

Gasoline blend futures:

COT Chart for RBOB . Gasoline Energy FuturesThis week, the major speculators of the gasoline blend futures contract resulted in a net position of 32,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 692 contracts from the previous week which totaled 31.407 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are very bullish with a score of 81.7 percent.

Nasdaq mini futures contract blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 26.6 53.7 8.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 15.4 68.4 4.4
net position: 32.099 -42454 10355
Total purchases: 76657 154,967 23177
– Total pants: 44558 197.421 12,822
Long to short ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 2.8 94.6 81.7
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie extreme rookie
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -1.7 4.3 -17.4

#2 New York Heating Oil Futures:

COT chart for New York heating oil futuresThe big No. 2 speculator in NY-Harbor heating oil futures standing this week has resulted in a net position of 7,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2.056 contracts from the previous week which totaled 9,564 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently optimistic at 53.5 percent. Commercials are down 43.9 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 61.5 percent.

Heating oil futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 16.5 52.6 14.9
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 13.7 62.1 8.2
net position: 7,508 -25743 18,235
Total purchases: 44423 141.515 40222
– Total pants: 36915 167258 21987
Long to short ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 53.5 43.9 61.5
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 16.0 -9.9 -5.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

COT chart for Bloomberg index futuresThe big speculator of Bloomberg Commodity Index futures which stands this week has resulted in a net position at -7,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week with a total net of -8,052 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently optimistic at 79.4 percent. Commercials are down 20.4% and small traders (not shown in chart) are down 21.6%.

Bloomberg index futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 27.6 68.6 0.7
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 38.8 57.9 0.2
net position: 7,349 7041 308
Total purchases: 18,077 45.029 456
– Total pants: 25426 37988 148
Long to short ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.1 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 79.4 20.4 21.6
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 8.8 -7.5 -13.1

Article – Commodity by InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT reports via email

*COT Report: COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated by the latest Tuesday (data 3 days old) and shows a quick look at how large speculators or non-commercials (profitable traders) are positioning in the futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies the positions of traders according to hedgers, commercial (traders who use futures contracts to hedge as part of a business), non-commercial (large traders who speculate to make profits from trading) and unreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as Their open interest (the contracts are open in the market at the time of reporting). See CFTC Standards over here.



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