Energy speculators bet on defensive led by WTI oil and natural gas :: InvestMacro


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Here are the latest graphs and statistics for Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated by Tuesday June 21 It presents a quick look at how the major traders (speculators for profit and business entities) are positioned in the futures markets.

Speculative bets in energy markets were lower during the week, with only two of the six energy markets we covering higher this week while four had lower contracts.

Gains in the energy markets were led by heating oil (1089 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (259 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, among the most notable declines in speculators’ bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-13.444 contracts) with Natural Gas (-7384 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-1621 contracts) and Gasoline (-49 contracts) also recording lower bets during the week. . .


Strengths (3 year range of speculative positions, 0-100 where above 80 is very bullish and below 20 is very bearish) show that Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil are both at bullish levels at the moment. All other energy markets are below the middle of the last 3 years and have severe bearish or bearish readings.


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The strengths trends trends (or the movement index, which calculates 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil again lead the six-week trends at 19.9 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Brent oil is leading downtrends by -11.4% over the past six weeks.


June 21 – 2022 OI OI Index net specification Specification Index Comment COM . indicator Smalls Net Smalls Index
West Texas Intermediate Crude 1,658,636 0 289502 0 -323,915 100 34413 64
He went 500276 14 163,287 4 -186.929 96 23,642 14
silver 145356 12 18,419 7 -27250 93 8831 4
copper 187170 17 -20938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37
Palladium 7641 6 -4,046 0 4511 100 -465 17
platinum 64946 30 1,491 6 -6397 96 4,906 30
natural gas 1,030,971 0 -130869 39 85977 58 44892 86
Brent 173,098 18 -38.010 47 36.052 53 1958 36
heating oil 2681818 23 9564 56 -28204 41 18,640 63
soybean 745494 32 178,379 68 -152968 38 -25411 28
corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326474 25 -53695 12
coffee 192.832 0 .49371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20
sugar 779773 0 163111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30
wheat 320326 6 19067 44 -15407 38 -3.660 91

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI crude oil futures COT chartThe biggest speculators on WTI crude oil futures this week was a net position of 28,9502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,444 contracts from the previous week which totaled 302,946 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%. Commercials are bullish-extreme at 100.0 percent and small traders (not shown in chart) are bullish at 63.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 23.4 35.9 5.2
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 6.0 55.4 3.2
net position: 289502 -323,915 34413
Total purchases: 388496 594860 86,668
– Total pants: 98994 918775 52255
Long to short ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 63.5
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -7.1 10.7 -13.1

Brent crude futures contracts:

COT chart for Brent crude oil futuresThe big speculator on Brent crude futures this week was net at -38,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of 1,621 contracts from the previous week net of -36,389 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently down 47.4 percent. Commercials are up 53.2 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are down 35.7 percent.

Brent crude futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 15.2 51.5 4.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 37.1 30.7 2.8
net position: -38.010 36.052 1958
Total purchases: 26225 89195 6865
– Total pants: 64235 53143 4,907
Long to short ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 47.4 53.2 35.7
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -11.4 9.1 17.7

Natural gas futures contracts:

COT chart for natural gas futuresThe big speculator on natural gas futures that stood this week was net at -130,869 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7384 contracts from the previous week which totaled -123.485 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently down 39.3 percent. Commercials are bullish at 58.0 per cent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are very bullish at 86.3 per cent.

Natural gas futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 20.7 39.8 7.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 33.4 31.5 2.7
net position: -130869 85977 44892
Total purchases: 213487 410457 72315
– Total pants: 344356 32480 27,423
Long to short ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 39.3 58.0 86.3
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising extreme rookie
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -5.5 7.0 -8.6

Gasoline blend futures:

COT Chart for RBOB . Gasoline Energy FuturesThe big speculator on blend gasoline futures this week was a net position of 31,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -49 contracts from the previous week which totaled 31,456 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently in a Bearish-Extreme position with a score of 2.1%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are bullish – severe with a score of 83.8 percent.

Nasdaq mini futures contract blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 25.3 54.3 7.8
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 14.8 68.3 4.3
net position: 31407 -42.080 10673
Total purchases: 75835 162.816 23491
– Total pants: 44428 204896 12,818
Long to short ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 2.1 95.0 83.8
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie extreme rookie
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 0.0 2.0 -13.5

#2 New York Heating Oil Futures:

COT chart for New York heating oil futuresThe No. 2 big speculator in NY-Harbor Futures heating oil contracts standing this week was the net position of 9,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which totaled 8,475 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently optimistic at 56.5 percent. Commercials are down 41.2 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 62.9 percent.

Heating oil futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 17.1 51.0 16.7
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 13.5 61.5 9.8
net position: 9564 -28204 18,640
Total purchases: 45,955 137166 44894
– Total pants: 36391 165370 26254
Long to short ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 56.5 41.2 62.9
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 20.8 -12.7 -7.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

COT chart for Bloomberg index futuresBloomberg’s big commodity futures speculator this week was net at -8,052 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 259 contracts from the previous week which netted –8,311 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently optimistic at 76.7 percent. The commercials are 23.2% bearish and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are 29.7% bearish.

Bloomberg index futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 26.8 69.5 0.7
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 39.1 57.5 0.2
net position: -8.052 7764 288
Total purchases: 17,434 45,267 447
– Total pants: 25486 37,503 159
Long to short ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 76.7 23.2 29.7
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 19.9 -18.8 -11.7

Article – Commodity by InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT reports via email

*COT Report: COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated by the latest Tuesday (data 3 days old) and shows a quick look at how large speculators or non-commercials (profitable traders) are positioning in the futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies the positions of traders according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts to hedge as part of a business), non-commercial (large traders who speculate on trading profits) and unreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their interest Open (the contracts are open in the market at the time of reporting). See CFTC Standards over here.



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