Energy speculators lower bets led by WTI and gasoline :: InvestMacro


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Here are the latest graphs and statistics for Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated by Tuesday 5 July It presents a quick look at how the major traders (speculators for profit and business entities) are positioned in the futures markets.

Speculators’ bets in the energy market have been lower this week, with only one of the six energy markets we cover ranking higher this week while the other five have lower contracts.

The only market that showed gains from a speculative bet for energy markets was Brent crude with gains of +4,163 contracts. Meanwhile, the notable declines in speculators’ bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-19,169 contracts), Gasoline (-4,078 contracts), Natural Gas (-1,100 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,022 contracts). and the commodity index (-137). Contracts) Record fewer bets per week.


Energy futures speculators Strengths

Strengths (measuring the 3-year range of speculative trades, 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is very bullish and less than 20 percent is very bearish) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.8 percent) is above its midpoint in The past three years are leading the way for energy markets in speculator sentiment. Brent oil (46.5 percent) and heating oil (52 percent) are also positive while WTI (0 percent) and gasoline (0 percent) are at the bottom of 3-year ranges and at bearish extremes.


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Trends of energy futures speculators

Strengths trends (or the Motion Index, which calculates 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that heating oil (18.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7.8 percent) lead the increasing scores over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has been in the biggest downtrend at -17.6 percent over the past six weeks, followed by natural gas (-5.7 percent) and gasoline (-4.4 percent).


July 05-2022 OI OI Index net specification Specification Index Comment COM . indicator Smalls Net Smalls Index
West Texas Intermediate Crude 1,637,862 0 280523 0 -304217 100 23694 48
He went 498,210 13 145660 0 -165.585 100 19,925 0
silver 140463 7 5139 0 -11,622 100 6483 0
copper 183331 15th -31.796 19 31,340 81 456 28
Palladium 7373 5 -3,410 4 4,104 98 -694 4
platinum 72895 44 – 2734 0 – 1670 100 4,404 23
natural gas 977507 0 -130519 39 91950 60 38569 71
Brent 166,711 13 -38514 47 37309 55 1,205 26
heating oil 264269 21 6,486 52 -22775 47 16,289 55
soybean 638675 7 125491 52 -93.638 56 -31,853 17
corn 1,331,035 0 260705 63 -207441 42 -53264 12
coffee 193.731 1 46787 79 -49139 25 2,352 14
sugar 713245 0 83.512 54 -85255 52 1,743 10
wheat 288754 0 8384 30 623 61 -9,007 64

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI crude oil futures COT chartThe big speculators on WTI crude oil futures this week were netting 280,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This represents a weekly reduction of -19,169 contracts from the previous week which totaled 299,692 contracts net.

Current strength score for this week ( merchant Positioning range over the past three years, which is scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently very bearish with a score of 0.0 percent. Commercials are bullish-extreme at 100.0 percent and small traders (not shown in chart) are bearish at 48.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 24.1 36.8 5.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 7.0 55.3 3.5
net position: 280523 -304217 23694
Total purchases: 394.943 601996 81.558
– Total pants: 114,420 906.213 57864
Long to short ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 48.4
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -17.6 23.1 -22.8

Brent crude futures contracts:

COT chart for Brent crude oil futuresMajor speculators on Brent crude futures this week tied a net position at -38,514 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,163 contracts from the previous week which totaled -42,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently down 46.5%. Commercials are up 55.3% and small traders (not shown in chart) are down 25.5%.

Brent crude futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 15.4 52.4 4.1
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 38.5 30.0 3.4
net position: -38514 37309 1,205
Total purchases: 25605 87320 6881
– Total pants: 64,119 50,011 5676
Long to short ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 46.5 55.3 25.5
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 1.3 -0.3 -8.1

Natural gas futures contracts:

COT chart for natural gas futuresThe big speculator on natural gas futures this week had a net position of -130,519 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of 1,100 contracts from the previous week which totaled -129,419 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently 39.4 percent bearish. Commercials are up 59.9 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 71.4 percent.

Natural gas futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 20.2 40.6 6.8
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 33.6 31.2 2.8
net position: -130519 91950 38569
Total purchases: 197,937 397.060 66331
– Total pants: 328456 305,110 27762
Long to short ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.4 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 39.4 59.9 71.4
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -5.7 8.9 -21.6

Gasoline blend futures:

COT chart for RBOB . Gasoline Energy FuturesThe big speculator of gasoline futures, which stands this week, had a net position of 28,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly decrease of -4,078 contracts from the previous week which totaled 32,099 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%. Commercials are bullish-extreme at 100.0 percent and small traders (not shown in chart) are bearish at 43.9 percent.

Nasdaq mini futures contract blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 26.9 52.7 7.5
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 16.6 64.7 5.7
net position: 28,021 -32693 4,672
Total purchases: 72955 142.761 20221
– Total pants: 44934 175454 15,549
Long to short ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 43.9
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -4.4 10.5 -43.3

#2 New York Heating Oil Futures:

COT chart for New York heating oil futuresThe No. 2 big speculator in NY-Harbor heating oil futures standing this week was equal to a net position of 6,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,022 contracts from the previous week which totaled 7,508 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently 52.0 percent optimistic. Commercials are down 47.0 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) are up 54.8 percent.

Heating oil futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 15.0 52.7 16.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 12.5 61.3 9.9
net position: 6,486 -22775 16,289
Total purchases: 39513 139,296 42410
– Total pants: 33.027 162.071 26121
Long to short ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 52.0 47.0 54.8
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish rising
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 18.7 -12.3 -3.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg index futures COT chartThe big speculator on Bloomberg Commodity Index futures contracts standing this week was equal to a net position of -7,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -137 contracts from the previous week which totaled -7,349 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently optimistic at 78.8 percent. Trades are bearish at 21.1% and small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1%.

Bloomberg index futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 27.4 66.8 0.5
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 38.4 56.1 0.2
net position: -7486 7,242 244
Total purchases: 18,524 45230 367
– Total pants: 26,010 37988 123
Long to short ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 78.8 21.1 19.1
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): rising bearish bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 7.8 -6.8 -10.4

Article – Commodity by InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT reports via email

*COT Report: COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated by the latest Tuesday (data 3 days old) and shows a quick look at how large speculators or non-commercials (profitable traders) are positioning in the futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies the positions of traders according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts to hedge as part of a business), non-commercial (large traders who speculate on trading profits) and unreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their interest Open (the contracts are open in the market at the time of reporting). See CFTC Standards over here.


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