Metal speculators bet slightly higher as gold and silver bets win :: InvestMacro


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Here are the latest charts and statistics for Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated by Tuesday June 21 It presents a quick look at how the major traders (speculators for profit and business entities) are positioned in the futures markets.

Speculators’ bets in the COT metals market were mostly higher during the week, with three of the five metals markets we covering taking higher positions this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Gains in the precious metals markets were led by gold (8,689 contracts) and silver (4,414 contracts) with palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, copper led the declines in speculators’ bets this week (-7,141 contracts) while platinum (-723 contracts) also posted lower bets during the week.

Notes:


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The highlight of this week’s metal data is He went centering. Speculative positions in gold rebounded a bit this week after last week seeing a sharp drop of more than 20,000 contracts. The net gold position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8 when the spec level reached +274,388 total contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th, 2021. Since then, the total bullish deal has pulled back a total of – 111101 contracts to settle this week with a net position of +163,287 contracts (only 4.4% of the 3-year range). However, the gold futures price is still in an uptrend on the daily charts and is standing right on a huge uptrend line that started in March 2021.

silver Positioning, much like gold, has been under pressure for the past 15 weeks. On March 8, silver bets reached a 43-week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the silver futures price reaching a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculators’ bets have plummeted and fallen in ten of the last fifteen weeks (total -33,878 contracts) to reach +18,419 contracts this week alone. Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and probably on its way towards the psychologically important $20.00 level.


Strengths (3-year range of speculator positions, 0-100 where above 80 is very bullish and below 20 is very bearish) show that copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not very bearish (less than 20 percent). The environment of higher interest rates with a strong US dollar has taken its toll on the precious metals category as sentiment for futures speculators remains already weak at the moment.

The strengths trends (or movement index, which calculates 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that gold (-15.1 percent) and palladium (-4.5 percent) have been driving downtrends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2%) and platinum (0.2%) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period.


June 21 – 2022 OI OI Index net specification Specification Index Comment COM . indicator Smalls Net Smalls Index
West Texas Intermediate Crude 1,658,636 0 289502 0 -323,915 100 34413 64
He went 500276 14 163,287 4 -186.929 96 23,642 14
silver 145356 12 18,419 7 -27250 93 8831 4
copper 187170 17 -20938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37
Palladium 7641 6 -4,046 0 4511 100 -465 17
platinum 64946 30 1,491 6 -6397 96 4,906 30
natural gas 1,030,971 0 -130869 39 85977 58 44892 86
Brent 173,098 18 -38.010 47 36.052 53 1958 36
heating oil 2681818 23 9564 56 -28204 41 18,640 63
soybean 745494 32 178,379 68 -152968 38 -25411 28
corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326474 25 -53695 12
coffee 192.832 0 .49371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20
sugar 779773 0 163111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30
wheat 320326 6 19067 44 -15407 38 -3.660 91

Comex Gold Futures:

COT chart for gold futuresThe big speculator on Comex gold futures this week came in a net position of 163,287 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which totaled 154,598 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of a trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0% and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7%.

Gold futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 53.6 24.0 8.9
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 21.0 61.4 4.1
net position: 163,287 -186.929 23,642
Total purchases: 268119 120,045 44380
– Total pants: 104,832 306974 20,738
Long to short ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 4.4 96.0 13.7
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -15.1 19.7 -38.5

Comex Silver Futures:

COT chart for silver futuresThe big speculators of Comex silver futures this week came in a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week, which was net 14,005 contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4% and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2%.

Silver Futures Statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 37.5 37.7 17.2
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 24.8 56.5 11.1
net position: 18,419 -27250 8831
Total purchases: 54451 54828 25,018
– Total pants: 36,032 82.078 16187
Long to short ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 6.9 93.4 4.2
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -1.0 4.2 -13.8

First class copper futures contracts:

COT chart for copper futuresThe big speculator of tier 1 copper futures, which this week stands at -20,938 contracts, came in on data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7.141 contracts from the previous week which totaled -13.797 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently down 27.3 percent. Commercials are up 72.5% and small traders (not shown in chart) are down 36.9%.

Copper futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 26.8 55.5 9.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 38.0 45.3 8.0
net position: -20938 18,928 2,010
Total purchases: 50230 103.789 16909
– Total pants: 71,168 84,861 14,899
Long to short ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 27.3 72.5 36.9
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish rising bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 1.2 -0.2 -7.9

Platinum futures contracts:

COT chart for platinum futuresThe big speculator on platinum futures this week came in a net position of 1,491 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -723 contracts from the previous week which totaled 2,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (range of the trader’s position over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. Commercials are bullish-extremely with a score of 96.2 percent and small traders (not shown in the chart) bearish at 30.4 percent.

Platinum futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 39.5 43.9 13.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 37.2 53.7 5.4
net position: 1,491 -6397 4,906
Total purchases: 25676 28,487 8413
– Total pants: 24185 34884 3,507
Long to short ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 5.5 96.2 30.4
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 0.2 -1.4 12.5

Palladium futures contracts:

COT chart for palladium futuresThe big speculator on palladium futures this week came in net at -4,046 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11 contracts from the previous week which totaled -4,057 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0% and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0%.

Palladium futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 13.2 74.0 12.6
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 66.2 15.0 18.6
net position: -4,046 4511 -465
Total purchases: 1009 5655 960
– Total pants: 5,055 1144 1,425
Long to short ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.1 100.0 17.0
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -4.5 6.0 -16.0

Article – Commodity by InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT reports via email

*COT Report: COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated by the latest Tuesday (data 3 days old) and shows a quick look at how large speculators or non-commercials (profitable traders) are positioning in the futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies the positions of traders according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts to hedge as part of a business), non-commercial (large traders who speculate on trading profits) and unreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their interest Open (the contracts are open in the market at the time of reporting). See CFTC Standards over here.



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