Speculator bets on precious metals on gold, copper and silver hit multi-year lows :: InvestMacro


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Here are the latest graphs and statistics for Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated by Tuesday 5 July It presents a quick look at how the major traders (speculators for profit and business entities) are positioned in the futures markets.

Speculators’ bets in the COT Metals market have been generally lower this week, with only one of the six metals markets we covering ranking higher this week while the other five have lower contracts. The only precious metals market with higher speculators bets this week was palladium with just 415 contracts up. Meanwhile, the most notable declines in speculators’ bets this week were gold (-12,033 contracts) and silver (-5,752 contracts), with platinum (-1,428 contracts) and copper (-1,100 contracts) also seeing a decline. In bets for this week.

Metal data highlights:

  • Speculators’ bets on gold have fallen for the past two weeks in a row and for nine of the past twelve weeks. These declines drove a total of -108,627 contracts away from gold’s bullish position in the last 12 weeks.
  • Current gold speculator position fell to its lowest level since May 28, 2019, in 162 weeks
  • Silver bets decreased in nine out of eleven weeks (for a total drop of -41,290 contracts)
  • Silver speculators’ positions are now down to a 160-week low, dating back to June 11, 2019
  • Speculators on copper are in bearish territory for the eleventh consecutive week and speculators’ bets have fallen a total of -67,938 contracts since April 5th.
  • Speculators’ bets on copper have fallen to the lowest level (currently -31,796 contracts) in the past 120 weeks, dating back to March 17, 2020.

Sentiment of futures speculators on precious metals

Strengths (which measures the 3-year range of speculator positions, 0 to 100 where above 80 is very bullish and below 20 is very bearish) shows that speculator sentiment for all precious metals is near or below each of the 3-year ranges. The current highest strength grade is for copper (19.5 percent) and has been in a very declining level for the past three years (less than 20 percent). All other markets are also in very bearish levels, with gold, silver and platinum staying at 3-year lows of 0 percent each.


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Futures trends for speculators in precious metals

Strengths trends (or movement index, which calculates 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that gold (-18.3 percent), silver (-12.3 percent) and copper (-8.8 percent) drive results to the downside over the past six weeks following Platinum (-6.0%). Palladium (0.3%) is the only precious metal that has a positive result even though it is hardly positive.


July 05-2022 OI OI Index net specification Specification Index Comment COM . indicator Smalls Net Smalls Index
West Texas Intermediate Crude 1,637,862 0 280523 0 -304217 100 23694 48
He went 498,210 13 145660 0 -165.585 100 19,925 0
silver 140463 7 5139 0 -11,622 100 6483 0
copper 183331 15th -31.796 19 31,340 81 456 28
Palladium 7373 5 -3,410 4 4,104 98 -694 4
platinum 72895 44 – 2734 0 – 1670 100 4,404 23
natural gas 977507 0 -130519 39 91950 60 38569 71
Brent 166,711 13 -38514 47 37309 55 1,205 26
heating oil 264269 21 6,486 52 -22775 47 16,289 55
soybean 638675 7 125491 52 -93.638 56 -31,853 17
corn 1,331,035 0 260705 63 -207441 42 -53264 12
coffee 193.731 1 46787 79 -49139 25 2,352 14
sugar 713245 0 83.512 54 -85255 52 1,743 10
wheat 288754 0 8384 30 623 61 -9,007 64

Comex Gold Futures:

COT chart for gold futuresLarge speculators in Comex gold futures this week totaled a net position of 145,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,033 contracts from the previous week which totaled 157,693 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0% and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5%.

Gold futures stats blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 53.8 23.7 8.8
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 24.5 57.0 4.8
net position: 145660 -165.585 19,925
Total purchases: 267806 118,289 43933
– Total pants: 122146 283,874 24,008
Long to short ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 0.5
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -18.3 21.1 -29.3

Comex Silver Futures:

COT chart for silver futuresLarge speculators in Comex silver futures this week totaled a net position of 5,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly decrease of -5,752 contracts from the previous week which totaled 10,891 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0% and the small traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%.

Silver Futures Statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 39.0 40.0 16.0
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 35.4 48.2 11.4
net position: 5139 -11,622 6483
Total purchases: 54841 56137 22495
– Total pants: 49702 67,759 16,012
Long to short ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 0.0
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -12.3 13.1 -13.2

Tier 1 copper futures contracts:

COT chart for copper futuresTier 1 copper futures speculators who stood this week totaled a net position of -31.796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This represents a weekly decrease of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which totaled -30,696 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5%. Commercials are bullish-extremely with a score of 81.0% and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish at 27.9%.

Copper futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 29.5 51.7 8.5
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 46.8 34.6 8.2
net position: -31.796 31,340 456
Total purchases: 54.073 94,749 15.516
– Total pants: 85869 63409 15,060
Long to short ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 19.5 81.0 27.9
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -8.8 8.3 0.6

Platinum futures contracts:

COT chart for platinum futuresThe total of major platinum futures speculators who stood this week netted a position of 2,734 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly decrease of 1,428 contracts from the previous week which totaled -1306 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%. Commercials are bullish-extreme at 100.0 percent and small traders (not shown in chart) are bearish at 23.4 percent.

Platinum futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 43.8 38.6 11.9
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 47.5 40.9 5.9
net position: – 2734 – 1670 4,404
Total purchases: 31,920 28155 8693
– Total pants: 34654 29825 4289
Long to short ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 0.0 100.0 23.4
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: -6.0 6.7 -11.1

Palladium futures contracts:

COT chart for palladium futuresLarge speculators of palladium futures this week totaled a net position of -3,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 415 contracts from the previous week which totaled 3,825 contracts net.

This week’s current strength score (trader’s position range over the past 3 years, scaled from 0 to 100) shows that the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7% and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7%.

Palladium futures statistics blowers Commercials small traders
The percentage of open interest purchases: 15.4 73.1 11.2
The percentage of shorts with open interest: 61.6 17.4 20.6
net position: -3,410 4,104 -694
Total purchases: 1132 5389 825
– Total pants: 4542 1,285 1,519
Long to short ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
net position direction:
Strength Index Score (over 3-year PCt): 3.6 97.7 3.7
Strength Index reading (over 3 years): bearish extreme extreme rookie bearish extreme
Net position movement index:
– 6 weeks change in strength index: 0.3 1.7 -21.2

Article – Commodity by InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT reports via email

*COT Report: COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated by the latest Tuesday (data 3 days old) and shows a quick look at how large speculators or non-commercials (profitable traders) are positioning in the futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies the positions of traders according to hedgers, commercial (traders who use futures contracts to hedge as part of a business), non-commercial (large traders who speculate to make profits from trading) and unreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as Their open interest (the contracts are open in the market at the time of reporting). See CFTC Standards over here.


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